Glossary

• Virus– a type of germ that consists solely of a bit of genetic material (DNA or RNA) wrapped in a protein coat.  The coat gets the genes into the target cell where the genes force the cell to make zillions of new viruses, and on it goes.
• Coronavirus– a species name of a number of different viruses.  Called corona because its protein coat is studded with spike shapes that form a crown, halo, or corona of spikes
• SARS-CoV-2– the specific name of the new coronavirus
• COVID-19-the name of the illness that the new coronavirus is causing
• Endemic– an illness always present in a region.  One could say strep throat is endemic in the US
• Epidemic– a sudden burst of an illness that comes and goes over a limited time
• Pandemic– an epidemic that bursts across the world not just one region
• Spreadability– how contagious is the disease, how many people will end up infected
• Severity– what harm does the disease cause, in terms of  how sick you get and how many it will kill
• Mask- a mask is a loose-fitting cloth or textile that covers the mouth and nose loosely.  A surgical mask is a mask used in surgery
• Respirator-  for the purposes of the COVID-19 pandemic and other respiratory illnesses, a respirator is a mask that fits very snugly or tightly to the user’s face.  An N95 mask is a respirator.
• Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)- PPE are any item that covers any part of the body with the design and intent of keeping viruses in the environment from infecting the wearer of the PPE. PPE’s include all masks (which includes respirators), face shields, eye shields, gloves, gowns.
• Ventilator- a ventilator is a machine that can force a person unable to breathe to inhale and exhale and control both effectively.  They are sometimes called respirators, but during this pandemic the word respirator is now reserved for reference to a tightly fit mask.

The Hydroxychloroquine Story- Look Before You Leap

The bottom line is that preliminary observations on 368 all male veterans with COVID-19 in VA hospitals around the country were given hydroxychloroquine in hopes it would make them better.   https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

It did not.

Here is what they found:

• For those veterans given routine care at the VA for his COVID-19, 11% of them diedof their COVID-19 infection.
• For those veterans given hydroxychloroquine and zithromax at the VA for his COVID-19, 22% of them diedof their COVID-19 infection.
• For those veterans given hydroxychloroquine at the VA for his COVID-19, 28% of them diedof their COVID-19 infection.

The study was posted online at a site for researchers, as a direct report of these observations without being reviewed by other experts for formal publication.  Also, the group that got  hydroxychloroquine and zithromax was too small to have much confidence in that result.

But this preliminary observation that taking  hydroxychloroquine while infected, in the hospital, with COVID-19, more than doubling your chance of dying, must make everyone re-think if it’s a good idea.  Most doctors across the country are taking this observation seriously, and the current stance is:

Do Not Take Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 under Normal Circumstances

The Story of Hydroxychloroquine

At this time, one must think of the story of  hydroxychloroquine as being a good idea that did not turn out to be effective, and may turn out to be deadly harmful.

This is not an unusual story in medicine.

The history of medical science and research is littered with thousands of ideas, each of which held amazing promise, that turned out to be either ineffective, or downright harmful.

We know this from the saga of developing any drug, say a new antibiotic.  Drug companies must screen tens of thousands of chemicals to find even one that might work.  The typical process finds that after evaluating 10,000 candidate drugs for new use, only 1 will make to the final trials, and 50% of these very, very promising candidates, that have surpassed 10,000 other candidate drugs, fail the final lap.

So when we say most ideas don’t work out, we mean most as in over 99.99% of ideas.

The Heart of Science

As readers of Real Answers may have recently read, science turns out to be simple in its heart.  It only asks one simple question, “What happens when we try out an idea?”

Science simply asks that we try out an idea, or a claim, and just see, is it false?

We used the example of Galileo dropping a heavy and a light ball from a tall tower.  The whole world had an idea, of course the heavier ball would land first.  So someone dropped them both, and guess what, they landed at the same time.

This is all there really is to science.  Make a claim, try to prove it false.  Usually you can.

And that is exactly what happened with hydroxychloroquine.   As posted earlier in Real Answers, this drug had real promise.  It did things that should help in situations like a COVID-19 infection, even seemed to help some folks with SARS and even some rumors that some people with COVID-19 got better.  The hope was real.

And what happened?  Some people concluded, hope is enough, who needs proof?  And they came out and let everyone know they had made up their mind,  hydroxychloroquine would work.  These ideas circulated across the country, even from the president.

Other people said, how about we try out science, or to put it more plainly, let’s try this drug and see if it works before we say it should be used.  These were mainly the doctors, people like Dr. Fauci, who have been around long enough to know that most hopes do not turn out to work when it comes to new drugs for new diseases.

So science has had its first observation, and not only  hydroxychloroquine fail to work, it caused people who took it to die more than twice as much as those who did not.  That’s not a drug that did not work, that’s a drug that kills.

BOTTOM LINES

1. A drug, hydroxychloroquine, was nominated to be helpful to those with COVID-19.  There was reason to hope.
2. But science asks a simple question:  “What happens when we try out an idea?”  It goes against our nature not to act on hope and ideas, but science does that, it tries out an idea and sees if it fails or not.
3. In its first real trial the hope of hydroxychloroquine failed miserably.  It is a first trial, it is not even reviewed for publication, so other observations may offer other findings.  BUT FOR NOW, THE INITIAL OBSERVATION THAT TAKING HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE MORE THAN DOUBLES THE CHANCE YOUR COVID-19 WILL KILL AND SO NOT ONE SHOULD BE TAKING IT NOW UNLESS PART OF A SPECIAL STUDY.

We all hope, it’s a beautiful thing.  But life works best when we combine our hopes, dreams, and great ideas with actual observations.

To your health,
Dr. Arthur Lavin